I’d like to thank you for your post. It was well thought out and very enlightening. It confirms what I feel is happening in real estate in Canmore, but I didn’t have the evidence for.

Also, thanks for the links. I’m always looking to improve my knowledge of the local market and information for a small community such as Canmore seems hard to come by.

I’d like to thank you for your post. It was well thought out and very enlightening. It confirms what I feel is happening in real estate in Canmore, but I didn’t have the evidence for.

Also, thanks for the links. I’m always looking to improve my knowledge of the local market and information for a small community such as Canmore seems hard to come by.

I’d like to thank you for your post. It was well thought out and very enlightening. It confirms what I feel is happening in real estate in Canmore, but I didn’t have the evidence for.

Also, thanks for the links. I’m always looking to improve my knowledge of the local market and information for a small community such as Canmore seems hard to come by.

Canmore has no real industry except tourism; most of what’s there is owned by those rich oil cunts from Cowtown as investment properties (read: sell when troubled; you cannot take real estate to the supermarket and buy dinner with it); most renters have limited stake in the community, and will have very little incentive to stay as the work dries up. All of those peripheral people doing useless jobs (like climbing guides, yoga teachers, masseuses, DJs and what not ) will soon be gone.

it will be really interesting to see what happens in Calgary…the 200,000 folks who moved there over the alst 5 years, what’s gonna happen when they sell their places and go back to Newfoundland?

Scott– a MINIMUM of two years, probably much more, before anything like a rebound. Conventional energy (oil) and NG which is still approaching its peak will be where it’s at.

Canmore has no real industry except tourism; most of what’s there is owned by those rich oil cunts from Cowtown as investment properties (read: sell when troubled; you cannot take real estate to the supermarket and buy dinner with it); most renters have limited stake in the community, and will have very little incentive to stay as the work dries up. All of those peripheral people doing useless jobs (like climbing guides, yoga teachers, masseuses, DJs and what not ) will soon be gone.

it will be really interesting to see what happens in Calgary…the 200,000 folks who moved there over the alst 5 years, what’s gonna happen when they sell their places and go back to Newfoundland?

Scott– a MINIMUM of two years, probably much more, before anything like a rebound. Conventional energy (oil) and NG which is still approaching its peak will be where it’s at.

Canmore has no real industry except tourism; most of what’s there is owned by those rich oil cunts from Cowtown as investment properties (read: sell when troubled; you cannot take real estate to the supermarket and buy dinner with it); most renters have limited stake in the community, and will have very little incentive to stay as the work dries up. All of those peripheral people doing useless jobs (like climbing guides, yoga teachers, masseuses, DJs and what not ) will soon be gone.

it will be really interesting to see what happens in Calgary…the 200,000 folks who moved there over the alst 5 years, what’s gonna happen when they sell their places and go back to Newfoundland?

Scott– a MINIMUM of two years, probably much more, before anything like a rebound. Conventional energy (oil) and NG which is still approaching its peak will be where it’s at.

Owners can look to renters to fill the gap, but renters have to be willing to pay more. I don’t think that’s going to happen given the number of trades leaving town as work dries up, the increased rental inventory (the Outlook seems to have more ads every week) and so on.

I think you have the relationship between how much real estate sells for and how much it rents for reversed. Rents (or returns) ultimately set prices, not the other way around. Rent is a true measure of what someone will pay to live somewhere; prices are what people will pay to “own” something either to live in it or speculate on appreciation as in the current bubble and every other bubble.

If I buy a property for a million I can’t raise the rent on it unless someone will pay what I’m asking. Over time and except in rare cases such as the current bubble, rents determine real estate prices, not the other way around. This is why you can currently rent a million dollar property in Canmore for $2500, which won’t come close to covering the mortgage (or is a very poor investment if the owner were to pay cash–less than 2 percent return at best, never mind that the property has now depreciated enough to be firmly negative). In bubbles prices go to huge multiples (very low return as in the dot.bomb crash, tulip crash, any other bubble in history) in relation to rents/return vs. prices (stocks or houses).

In Calgary, California, Florida, and many other places around the world there are lots of “investors” just figuring this out now, and it’s not pretty. There is a huge glut of unsold inventory in Canmore right now, and the quantity of rental listings in the paper continues to rise. For some fun graphs check out:

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/calgary_real_estate_valuation_large.png

Kind of a confusing chart–ignore the word boxes and look a the color coded lines. The red and the blue will come back together eventually, and I’m not seeing that coming from increased rent.

http://www.canadian-housing-price-charts.235.ca/index.htm

Calgary is already off enough to put many if not most home owners who bought in the last year upside down (they have lost more than their ten percent or less down–leverage is a bitch).

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4922/calgaryinflationadjustede7.png

So those who have bought in the last year aren’t likely to be able to cover their mortgages with rent, even if interest rates don’t rise… That’s OK when the bubble is inflating, but generally not acceptable when it’s deflating like now. Look out below. Maybe some of our friends who have moved to Revy, Quebec, Golden or elsewhere might be back…

And I’m still pro-PAH in general, it is the least-bubbled housing in Canmore. The marketing is just really wrong, let’s not throw the baby out with the bath on the concept of PAH.

Owners can look to renters to fill the gap, but renters have to be willing to pay more. I don’t think that’s going to happen given the number of trades leaving town as work dries up, the increased rental inventory (the Outlook seems to have more ads every week) and so on.

I think you have the relationship between how much real estate sells for and how much it rents for reversed. Rents (or returns) ultimately set prices, not the other way around. Rent is a true measure of what someone will pay to live somewhere; prices are what people will pay to “own” something either to live in it or speculate on appreciation as in the current bubble and every other bubble.

If I buy a property for a million I can’t raise the rent on it unless someone will pay what I’m asking. Over time and except in rare cases such as the current bubble, rents determine real estate prices, not the other way around. This is why you can currently rent a million dollar property in Canmore for $2500, which won’t come close to covering the mortgage (or is a very poor investment if the owner were to pay cash–less than 2 percent return at best, never mind that the property has now depreciated enough to be firmly negative). In bubbles prices go to huge multiples (very low return as in the dot.bomb crash, tulip crash, any other bubble in history) in relation to rents/return vs. prices (stocks or houses).

In Calgary, California, Florida, and many other places around the world there are lots of “investors” just figuring this out now, and it’s not pretty. There is a huge glut of unsold inventory in Canmore right now, and the quantity of rental listings in the paper continues to rise. For some fun graphs check out:

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/calgary_real_estate_valuation_large.png

Kind of a confusing chart–ignore the word boxes and look a the color coded lines. The red and the blue will come back together eventually, and I’m not seeing that coming from increased rent.

http://www.canadian-housing-price-charts.235.ca/index.htm

Calgary is already off enough to put many if not most home owners who bought in the last year upside down (they have lost more than their ten percent or less down–leverage is a bitch).

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4922/calgaryinflationadjustede7.png

So those who have bought in the last year aren’t likely to be able to cover their mortgages with rent, even if interest rates don’t rise… That’s OK when the bubble is inflating, but generally not acceptable when it’s deflating like now. Look out below. Maybe some of our friends who have moved to Revy, Quebec, Golden or elsewhere might be back…

And I’m still pro-PAH in general, it is the least-bubbled housing in Canmore. The marketing is just really wrong, let’s not throw the baby out with the bath on the concept of PAH.

Owners can look to renters to fill the gap, but renters have to be willing to pay more. I don’t think that’s going to happen given the number of trades leaving town as work dries up, the increased rental inventory (the Outlook seems to have more ads every week) and so on.

I think you have the relationship between how much real estate sells for and how much it rents for reversed. Rents (or returns) ultimately set prices, not the other way around. Rent is a true measure of what someone will pay to live somewhere; prices are what people will pay to “own” something either to live in it or speculate on appreciation as in the current bubble and every other bubble.

If I buy a property for a million I can’t raise the rent on it unless someone will pay what I’m asking. Over time and except in rare cases such as the current bubble, rents determine real estate prices, not the other way around. This is why you can currently rent a million dollar property in Canmore for $2500, which won’t come close to covering the mortgage (or is a very poor investment if the owner were to pay cash–less than 2 percent return at best, never mind that the property has now depreciated enough to be firmly negative). In bubbles prices go to huge multiples (very low return as in the dot.bomb crash, tulip crash, any other bubble in history) in relation to rents/return vs. prices (stocks or houses).

In Calgary, California, Florida, and many other places around the world there are lots of “investors” just figuring this out now, and it’s not pretty. There is a huge glut of unsold inventory in Canmore right now, and the quantity of rental listings in the paper continues to rise. For some fun graphs check out:

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/calgary_real_estate_valuation_large.png

Kind of a confusing chart–ignore the word boxes and look a the color coded lines. The red and the blue will come back together eventually, and I’m not seeing that coming from increased rent.

http://www.canadian-housing-price-charts.235.ca/index.htm

Calgary is already off enough to put many if not most home owners who bought in the last year upside down (they have lost more than their ten percent or less down–leverage is a bitch).

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4922/calgaryinflationadjustede7.png

So those who have bought in the last year aren’t likely to be able to cover their mortgages with rent, even if interest rates don’t rise… That’s OK when the bubble is inflating, but generally not acceptable when it’s deflating like now. Look out below. Maybe some of our friends who have moved to Revy, Quebec, Golden or elsewhere might be back…

And I’m still pro-PAH in general, it is the least-bubbled housing in Canmore. The marketing is just really wrong, let’s not throw the baby out with the bath on the concept of PAH.